4.02 vs 3.72: Suspensions Track The Calendar, Not Darkness

This is the education commute. Both voices on the show are synthesized. The judgment isn't, you know, um, the clocks went back exactly three weeks ago and well, you can just absolutely feel the atmospheric shift in the building. Oh, you really do feel it. It's, it's undeniable, right? Like it's dark on the walk -in now and then it dark all over again by the time you're sitting down looking at that, you know, massive pile of marking at four in the afternoon. Yeah. The physical environment has completely changed.

Completely. And the mood inside the building has just shifted right along with it. It has. And it isn't just about the lack of light outside either. The entire feeling in the corridor is different. It is noticeably louder somehow. Like the volume just seems to creep up day by day as we get deeper into the term. Yes, exactly. It's louder. It's more chaotic. And the fuses are just shorter. Oh, absolutely. Everyone's fuses. Mine included, if I'm being completely honest with you, the patience that was there in September just, you know, isn't there anymore.

No, it isn't. It's a very real shift. And inevitably, because we all feel it, this brings us to, like, the ultimate staffroom trouble. Oh, here we go. You know what I mean, right? Like, at some point this week, someone will be standing in the staffroom making a cup of tea, and they'll let out this heavy sigh, and they'll just say, it's just November. Everyone says that. Yeah. And they will say it entirely as if it's an established, undeniable fact that everyone in the room already knows and accepts.

Every single November, for as long as anyone can remember, you hear those exact words echoing around the staff room. It's just November. Always. But here is the question we really need to answer for you today as you make your way in. Is that actually true? Right. Like, is November fundamentally worse? Or is this the kind of thing that becomes true simply because everyone keeps repeating it over and over again? Yeah, does the constant repetition of it's just November actually create a self -fulfilling prophecy in the building?

Exactly. That is genuinely worth checking rather than just, you know, repeating the same old staff room wisdom back to you. Yeah. If we are going to understand what is happening in the corridors right now, we need to look at what is actually happening in the data. Well, I am Priya, an ECT, in my first November in the job, and currently the one quietly asking, is it just me? And I am Alex, a behavior lead. I track the data every term, and this week I actually went and checked whether this whole, it's the dark months narrative holds up to any kind of scrutiny.

Okay, so let's unpack this completely. You have the actual figures in front of you, right? Because we hear the trope in the staff room and we, you know, we feel the physical atmospheric shift in the building. But what does the data actually tell us about behavior in November? Do the numbers back up the feeling? Well, they do, but the reasoning is fascinating. Okay. So the Department for Education, the DFE, they publish suspension figures. Right. But crucially, they don't just publish them by the academic year as one big block.

They actually break them down by term. Oh, that's helpful. Yeah, it allows us to look at the exact period we are in right now. So we look at the autumn term for 2024 -25. Yeah. The figure is exactly 4 .02 suspensions per 100 pupils. Okay, 4 .02 suspensions per 100 pupils in the autumn term. So what does this all mean when we compare it to the rest of the year? Well. Because we need a baseline to know if 4 .02 is actually high. What about the spring term?

So for the spring term, the figure drops. Yeah. It is 3 .72 suspensions per 100 pupils. 3 .72, okay. So it genuinely is lower in the spring. It is lower, measurably lower. You go from 4 .02 suspensions per 100 pupils in the autumn down to 3 .72 in the spring. Wow. Yeah, that is a concrete recorded difference in the number of suspensions happening across schools. So it is true. The staffroom trope is absolutely right. I mean, everyone who stands by the kettle and says it's just November is fully backed up by the DFE data.

In a way, yeah. The numbers are higher right now. It genuinely is measurably lower in the spring. The staffroom was right all along. Hold on, though, because the DFE -owned data release doesn't just stop at giving you those two numbers. It doesn't. No, it doesn't just hand over the 4 .02 and the 3 .72 and leave it at that. Yeah. It actually tells you why the numbers look like that. Oh, interesting. And why isn't what you'd expect from the conversations happening over the photocopier. It completely bypasses the narrative we usually construct.

Go on. Tell me what they say. Why is it 4 .02 right now and only 3 .72 in the spring? So using their own words here. The DFE states that this gap between autumn and spring is a pattern often seen in past years. Okay. So right away, they confirm it as a real pattern. Exactly. This isn't a one -off statistical blip for this particular year. It happens repeatedly year after year. Right. But then straight after validating that the pattern exists, they explain the mechanics behind it.

And what are they? They point out that term lengths vary. Autumn is typically the longest term. The spring and summer terms shift around depending on exactly when Easter falls. Wait, so autumn has a higher rate of suspensions, partly because the autumn term simply has more school days in it. That is exactly the DFE's own explanation, not mine. It is a purely structural explanation. Because there are more days in the autumn term, there are simply more chances for something to happen. That makes so much sense, but it's so simple.

Right, it's not nothing. The rate itself is still higher. You know, it isn't just the raw count of suspensions going up. The actual rate of 4 .02 per 100 pupils is higher. But it was not the dramatic darkness makes children behave worse the story either. No, it is simply the longest stretch of time we spend in the building. That is a genuinely different story to the ones circulating in the staff room. Very different. We take a completely boring structural fact like the simple reality that autumn is the longest term of the year with the most days and that spring and summer shift depending on Easter and the staff room Turns it into something that sounds almost mystical exactly the narrative becomes it's the dark months, right?

We attribute the higher suspension rate to the fact that the clocks went back three weeks ago And it's dark at four in the afternoon rather than just you know looking at the calendar and seeing that the term itself is just longer And once it framed as mystical, once we blame the darkness and the time of year, nobody asks what's actually different about the structure of the term itself. We just accept that November is cursed. Pretty much. We accept that the corridors are louder because it's winter.

rather than looking at the fact that we are simply in the building for more days during this stretch, we turn a scheduling reality into a seasonal mood. What's fascinating here is how easily a structural reality gets overwritten by a seasonal feeling. Oh, absolutely. It is so much easier to blame the weather and the dark walk -in than it is to analyze term lengths. Okay, I'm going to push back on you here, though. Right. I am going to push back on that tidy DFE explanation. Go for it.

because I am in the building every day, and term length alone does not explain the feeling of November. It's true. It's not just that there are more days on the calendar. It fundamentally feels different. The new starts have worn off. That fresh September energy is completely gone. Long on. And half term is the only break we get in this massive long stretch. Yeah. Christmas is looming out there in the distance, and everyone's staff and pupils is just... tired. You can't just chalk that weariness up to a simple day count.

That's fair. That is very fair. And honestly, I have to say I can also fully answer that one. I genuinely don't know. Well, I appreciate you saying that the data has its limits when it comes to the reality on the ground. It does. I genuinely don't know the exact balance there because nothing in the DFE data tells us whether this higher suspension rate of four point zero two is purely down to the day count or whether something about the shape of the term itself, that long stretch you just mentioned with only one half term break is doing extra work.

Exactly. The data gives us the numbers four point zero two versus three point seven. to and it gives us the structural explanation of term length varying based on Easter. But it cannot measure the weariness of a long term with only a single break before Christmas. Right. It can't measure what happens when the new starts wear off. Well, thank you for the honest concession. Thank you for not pretending the tidy structural explanation covers absolutely everything we are experiencing right now with the shorter fuses and the louder corridors.

It doesn't cover everything. It gives us the structural baseline. But it doesn't give us the psychological reality. What I can tell you, however, is what is actually current in terms of the framework you're working inside right now, this exact term. Oh, that is definitely something we need to get into. Because if everyone is tired and if the data shows that suspensions generally are higher in the autumn, then this is exactly the time when incidents are most likely to escalate. Of course. And when things escalate, you need to be absolutely certain about the rules.

We can move from what isn't fully known in the data to what is absolutely known in the framework. That makes perfect sense. I mean, if the stakes are higher right now, we need to be rock solid on the rules. Exactly. Tell me exactly what we need to know about the framework right now. So the Statute of Choice Offension and Exclusion Guidance was updated, and this updated guidance has been in force since the 26th of July this year. The 26th of July this year? Yes. It came into force in July.

It is still current, and it is still the exact version you are operating under right now. this November. All right, I know statutory guidance isn't like the most glamorous part of the job. No, it isn't. But if the suspensions are ticking up to 4 .02 per 100 pupils right now, we need to make sure we are completely bulletproof on this. Absolutely. So what exactly changed on the 26th of July? What are the specifics we need to be aware of? There are a few specific things worth knowing from the update.

First, there are clear rules on keeping pupils apart, specifically for safeguarding reasons. The guidance makes it extremely clear that this separation is for safeguarding, not just for behavior reasons. Let's stop and look at that because that is an incredibly important distinction to make. It really is. Safeguarding specifically, not just general behavior. Why do they need to clarify that? Because keeping pupils apart for a behavior sanction is fundamentally different from keeping them apart to keep them safe. If you get those two things confused in your processes, you aren't just making a small administrative error.

You are completely misunderstanding the purpose of the separation. Precisely. The motivation for the separation matters immensely under the guidance. You need to be clear that keeping pupils apart is a safeguarding measure, and the updated rules clarify exactly how that should be handled as distinct from a behavior sanction. That's a huge clarification. Yeah. Second, Pupil Referral Unit Management Committees now have the power to direct pupils off -site. Wait, they couldn't do that before. No. Think about what that actually means for a pupil referral unit. Before this July 26th update, that management committee did not have that specific power to direct off -site.

Right. Now they do. That significantly changes the options they have available when dealing with escalating situations. It empowers the committee itself to make that structural move. Exactly. It places that specific power directly with the pupil referral unit management committees. Wow, okay. What's the third thing? And third, there has been a major clarification of the review process. In what exactly? This means that governing boards independent review panels and parents are all working from the exact same expectations when a review is taking place. Okay, if you're listening to this on your commute right now and you sit on a governing board, this review process clarification is huge.

It's massive. Because when a review is happening, you have the governing board, the independent review panels, and the parents all involved. If the expectations aren't completely clarified, you have three different groups coming to the table with three different understandings of the rule. Which is a recipe for disaster. Exactly. The July update clarifies that process so that everyone The board, the panel, the parents is working from the exact same expectations. It ensures alignment across the board. Now you mentioned earlier that this is the statutory suspension and exclusion guidance.

Yes. That word is key. It is statutory, which is fundamentally different from the general behavior advice schools receive. Right, and it is very worth being precise about that distinction. If we connect this to the bigger picture of how schools operate, the general behavior in schools document is advice. Yes. Because it is advice, you should have regard to it. Yes, should have regard to is the precise terminology for advice. But the suspension and exclusion guidance we are talking about, the one updated on the 26th of July, is statutory.

Right. Because it is statutory, you must follow it. A big difference. They are two entirely different documents with two entirely different weights, even though they deal with the same broad topic of how pupils conduct themselves. Advice means you should have regard to it. Statutory guidance means you must follow it. Precisely. That is a crucial distinction for anyone working in a school right now. When it comes to the July 26 updates, the safeguarding separation, the PRU management committees directing offsite, the clarified review process, you must follow them.

You must. So we have the same underlying idea running through all of this. The long, tiring term, the updated statutory rules we must follow, the shifting data validating that incidents are up. How do we actually apply this? Well, that's the real question. What does any of this look like on a dark Tuesday in November across different settings? Let's start with a primary setting. Sure. In a primary setting, applying this knowledge might mean naming the pattern to pupils directly. Oh, interesting. Yeah, you might actually say to the room, this term's long, we're all a bit tired.

This term's long, we're all a bit tired. I really like that approach for primary because children feel the atmospheric shift too. They know it's dark. They know the fuses are shorter. They absolutely do. It sounds like a very small thing to do, but it takes the mystery out of why everyone is a bit sharper right now. Right. By naming the structural reality of the long term to the pupils, you help them understand the dynamic in the room without just blaming them for the shift in behavior.

You remove the mysticism entirely and just state the structural fact. We are all tired because the term is long. It validates their weariness without excusing poor behavior. Exactly. What about in a secondary school? How does a head of year or a behavior lead handle this? In a secondary school, this looks like checking your own sanctions data before you assume the corridor is genuinely worse. Oh, that's smart. You need to watch whether your own sanctions are creeping up simply because the term is dragging. Yeah. You have to check your own data before assuming the behavior in the corridor has fundamentally deteriorated.

That is such a vital point. Like, are we issuing more sanctions because the secondary students are actually behaving worse? Or are we issuing more sanctions because our own fuses are shorter, like we talked about at the very beginning? Are we just less tolerant because it's four in the afternoon and we have a pile of marking? You have to check the data to make sure the sanctions aren't just creeping up because everyone is dragging through the longest term. Exactly. You have to separate your own fatigue from the student's actual behavior.

So true. And finally, in a specialist setting, recognizing this pattern is vital because the long autumn stretch without a proper break can matter even more directly. How so? In these specialist settings, routine and predictability are often the actual regulation strategy. Oh, wow. Yes. Routine and predictability aren't just nice things to have. They are the actual regulation strategies for the pupils in a specialist setting. Yes. And a term with only one half term gives less of that predictability, less relief than any other term in the year.

Of course. The long stretch directly challenges the regulation strategies that rely on regular predictable breaks. That makes perfect sense. The very shape of the autumn term actively impacts the primary regulation strategy in a specialist setting. It does. The lack of breaks undermines the predictability they need. This raises an incredibly important question, then, about how we communicate all of this upwards. It really does. If a governor or a local authority officer came in tomorrow and asked you why the autumn suspension numbers were up at 4 .02 compared to the 3 .

72 last spring, could you actually explain the term length factor to them? Most people couldn't. Right. Or would you find yourself just falling back on the staffroom trope and saying, well, it's always worse in winter? That right there is the readiness check for you as a professional. Yeah. It is not about defending the number. It is about being able to explain it properly. Exactly. If a governor or an LA officer asks about the 4 .02 versus the 3 .72, You need to be prepared to explain the DFE's structural explanation.

You explain that autumn is the longest term and term lengths vary depending on Easter. You demonstrate that you understand the mechanics of the school year. You don't just blame the dark months. Exactly. It's about being informed and professional rather than relying on staff room mythology. Exactly right. So let's bring all of this together for you before you arrive. We always want to leave you with the most important takeaways from our discussion. Here are the exactly three things off the drive today. 1. Autumn genuinely does have a higher suspension rate than spring.

That is backed by the DFE's own data. It's a real and repeated pattern. 4 .02 suspensions per 100 pupils in the autumn, dropping to 3 .72 in the spring. 2. The DFE's own explanation for that higher rate is mostly structural, not seasonal. Autumn is typically the longest term. More days in the building equal more chances for incidents to happen. Saying it's the dark months oversimplifies something that is more boring but ultimately more useful to actually know and explain. And number three, know the exact difference between the advice you should have regard to and the statutory guidance you must follow.

So important. This is especially critical with the suspension and exclusion rules that have been current since the 26th of July this year. Right. Keep those three specific changes in mind. the clearer rules on keeping pupils apart specifically for safeguarding reasons rather than just behavior. The fact that PRU management committees now have the power to direct pupils off site. Yes. And the clarified review process ensuring governing boards, independent review panels, and parents are all working from the exact same expectations. Everything we've discussed today is linked for you.

And there is a printable one -pager covering all of this at theeducationcommute .co .uk. And while you are on the website, you will find two free newsletters. One is written specifically for school staff and the other is for parents and carers. Yeah, they both use the exact same evidence we've talked about today, but they're written specifically for the person reading it. Before we head into the building and face that dark, loud corridor, I just want to leave you with this final thought to mull over. If the structure of our calendar dictates so much of our behavior and our weariness, how much of our professional stress is actually just a problem of scheduling?

Both voices on the show are synthesized. The judgment isn't. Safe trip in. See you at the gates.